Financial Wisdom – By Kalidas

Radical Solution for Credit Crisis from Kalidas

Posts Tagged ‘Credit Crisis

Helping Indian Industrialists, Mr. Prime Minister

with 20 comments


Ref: 0811-015

It is well known that India’s best breed of industrialists Tata (of TISCO and Tata Motors) and Birla (Hindalco) for over 5 decades are in serious trouble while taking up expansion overseas. Yes, they made serious errors and in normal course, they may not have deserved the help for their follies.



















However, the circumstances are entirely different now. We are in middle of severest form of credit crisis. Although Tata and Birla are well known in India, they are not as much known overseas. Since almost all western banks are in trouble, they are unable to raise necessary finance their overseas acquisition – Corus (for Tata Steel), Jaguar (for Tata Motors) and Novelis (for Hindalco). They are now at the mercy of the foreign vultures.

Should India and Indians abandon these worthy Industrialists who created millions of jobs, made India independent in basic industries without foreign help, donated thousands of crores in charities in building temples (Birla Temple in Shahad, Kalyan (Maharashtra)  is one of them), educational institutions like BIT (Birla Institute of Technology), Tata Institute of Social Science (TISC at Chembur, Mumbai) Tata Institute of Fundamental Research (TIFR), hospitals, schools, nurseries, Tata Consultancy Service (TCS) and what not for the benefit of Indian society regardless of cast, creed or color, and also paid thousands of crores of Income Tax, Excise duty, Sales Taxes, Professional taxes to the national and state exchequer for over 60 years?


0811-015-man-mohan-singhIt is now pay back time, Mr. Prime Minister and Finance Minster. India and Indians are not those ungrateful bastards. Those who helped this nation deserve all type of help when they are in distress.


It is causing sleepless nights to both Ratan Tata (in his early seventy) and Kumar Mangalam Birla (who is relatively younger). They deserve better retirement days. We have to make their lives better towards the fag end of their life in recognition of their contribution to the massive development of India and Indians as whole. These two industrialists never bothered about India’s deep divide religious fabrics while creating industries for themselves and millions of Indian back home. Without them, India would not have been 60% of what it is today.


Ratan Tata is going pillar to post for lousy $12 billions whereas Mr. Birla for paltry $5 to 6 billions to finance their overseas acquisitions. When the world is denying them these paltry sum, for its own reasons of bankruptcy, why not India with over $300 billions of Forex reserve which is earning lousy 1 or 2% interest and invested in bankrupt country like USA, help our own businessmen whose acumen is beyond doubt.




Charity begins at home. India as nation must help these two outstanding businessmen. They may not long for Bharat Ratna, Padma Vibhushan, Padma Bhushan or similar khitabs. They need material help at the time of their acute distress. If Indian Forex Reserve does not come to the help of India’s best industrialists, what is the use? Should we allow our Forex reserve for the use of Americans who has been simply wasting all resources and using them to create toxic waste.


Indian FOREX Reserve belongs to the Indians and must be used for Indians first and others later.


And I do not suggest that you give them free money. Give them the amount required as under after due scrutiny.



  1. Assess their requirements and be wetted by top financial institution.
  2. Work out how much amount they need
  3. Give them @ 5% in foreign currency non subordinated Convertible Bonds secured by the floating pari pasu charge on their respective enterprise.
    1. Such bonds may carry conversion rights at last 6 months average prices of their respective shares, exercisable only after 5 years.
    2. It may have buy back clause at 8% premium per year for the life of 15 years. This will help these guys to buy back the bonds when they are comfortable without diluting their equity stakes when the things improve.
    3. If the Government wishes, it may sell these bonds in the market with huge profit (because current stock prices are very low), after giving respective companies to buy back the bonds.
  4. When the things improve, they can raise the capital from the market to buy back these bonds.
  5. Give them loans repayable in 15 years due to depression prevailing all over the world.
  6. Ask them to pay special tax @ 3% after initial 5 years so as to relieve the interest burden during early phase of management. National exchequer may also be benefited for help rendered.
  7. Ask them to give India at least 5 hospitals and 5 Technical Institutes with full management rights vested with the respective group companies on purely voluntary basis. (we can trust them)
  8. Ask them to adopt at least 5 villages to make them into model town in next 15 years on voluntary basis. (again, we can trust them)
  9. Indian tax payers are not affected with this help. Their advance is fully secured and given to the industrialists they trust most.


This is the only way of really honouring our beloved industrialists. It is not going to set the precedents, if you are worrying about them. Even if it is setting precedent, it is a good one. It is one of the principles enshrined in the Constitution of India under Directive Principles of State Policy from Article 36 to 51. One of the article is quoted below:


Directive Principles of State Policy as enshrined in Constitution of India


State to secure a social order for the promotion of welfare of the people.—’[(l)j The State shall strive to promote the welfare of the people by securing and protecting as effectively as it may a social order in which justice, social, economic and political, shall inform all the institutions of the national life.


The State shall, in particular, strive to minimize the inequalities in income, and endeavour to eliminate inequalities in status, facilities and opportunities, not only amongst individuals but also amongst groups of people residing in different areas or engaged in different vocations.]


Certain principles of policy to be followed by the State.—The State shall, in particular, direct its policy towards securing—

(a) That the citizens, men and women equally, have the right to an adequate means of livelihood;

(b) That the ownership and control of the material resources of the community are so distributed as best to subserve the common good:


By following above policy, the state will be preserving the jobs of the millions of workers in India


Mr. Prime Minister and Mr. Finance Minister, the time is critical. Do not even flinch while extending help. If you do not, their enterprises could slip into foreign hands, could cause huge job losses back home that may have devastating social consequences. The material resources of this country are in danger of losing to foreign hands, if our own people are not helped.


This is the appeal not only from this Kalidas (Anil Selarka) but also millions of investors in India. Read the following sample poll from learned investors from India and let them help you in forming your final decision. God Bless India.


Kalidas, Hong Kong


Ref: 0811-015- Helping Indian Industrialists


Ignored Letter to the President Bush Causes $15 Trillion Blow Out

with 9 comments

The letter was received by White House through FEDEX on 25-August-2008. It was neither acted upon nor acknowledged. When the matter of utmost national importance and urgency was received at the White House, they chose to ignore. It shows how bureaucratic and unimaginative the White House officials are. When the nation was sinking, even a small life line was worth taking a chance. But Nay, George W Bush was destined to go down as the worst ever President of the United States in its history, a man who completely ruined and destroyed every fabric of America

Ref: 08-012 of 31-Oct-2008
That’s right. I had the perfect solution to the present problems facing the United States and the world. I sent a letter to the President of the United States of America, Mr. George W Bush, suggesting my complete plan to resolve the problem of not only Sub Prime crisis but also to offer the complete blue print in no uncertain terms to solve the most of the problems that you are hearing day in and out on CNBC, BBC, NBC, ABC , CBS and host of finance specific newspapers around the country and the world.


I also wrote that it was time for action for the President Bush, that his last 60 days of Presidency were the most important part of his career, and that he could change the face of America in just under 60 days. It was not the time for relaxation but action. I warned that if he did not take the swift action, the worse days would follow.

I also sent a copy of this letter to the Consul General of United States in Hong Kong for his information so that in case, some bureaucrat ignored the letter, he could have filled in the gap to alert the appropriate authorities. I also gave my full identity.

And the result was disastrous. Within 16 days, the worst things started happening in United States in quick succession. Trillions of dollars were lost in worst ever shake up on Wall Street and Nasdaq, $700 billions package was designed by Paulson and Bernanke who do not know even today, what are the real problems facing the United States, and they go on printing and guaranteeing the bad debts running into trillions of dollars.


Here is the full text of my letter (Last two pages of my profile and cover page of my new book are omitted here).


Tell me, If you were the President of United States of America, if you were facing the enormous problems, and you got a letter that claimed to redress all vital problems facing the country, what would you have done? Read the letter and acted, at least deliberated, or just ignored and dumped into the dustbin? Vote for it at the end of this article:


All Paulson and Bernanke’s Bail Out plan of US$ 700 billions were really not necessary. This plan is not working nor will work in future. It will simply give rise to massive rise in inflation that may see the interest rates climbing to 24% to 30% in less than 18 months.


Both Paulson and Bernanke are hell bent upon printing the dollars as way out for current massive problem. They do not know the problem at all – where is the question of looking forward to them for solution. Why Should American Tax payers bear the cost of over US$ 1.5 trillions spent so far and hand over the blank checkbook to these two guys who have run out of common sense and wielding monetary weapons in complete darkness?


A copy of My Letter dated 18-Aug-2008 (Received by White House on 25 Aug 2008) is reproduced below with a copy of my letter to addressed to Consul General of United States in Hong Kong.

Mr. George W Bush,

The President of the United States of America,
The White House , 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
Washington, DC 20500 USA

Dear Mr. President,
  Sub Prime Resolved

The Bible for Recovery of the United States of America

I have solution for not only the sub-prime crisis, but also the most comprehensive economic and political solution for other troubles like falling dollar, rising crude and commodity prices, gold and geo-political crisis in the Middle East. So far as I know from the public knowledge, I am at this point of time, the only person in the world to have complete and speediest solution for the current range of crisis engulfing the United States.


First thing first. Who am I? Kalidas is a nickname – my real name is mentioned in the enclosed profile. Briefly, I am a Hindu by religion, borne in Mumbai (India), grew up for 36 years there, currently a Permanent Resident of Hong Kong for over 24 years, a full British Citizen (my sole nationality), and a friend of the United States of America. I have 40 years of combined experience in banking, as stock broker, bond trader, in capital markets, business and finance. I have clean record in all countries of my residence.

Sub Prime Resolved

Sub Prime Resolved

You stand excellent chance to make your last 90 days of Presidency the most memorable event of your political career. What could not be achieved in the past 2700 days of Presidency, would be achieved in just 90 days. Your approval rating could rise to over 90 by the time you would give up your Presidency.

The chances for success will be between 70% to 95% if you implement the suggestions with full conviction. Within next 90 days, before November 4, 2008, the United States will be up and running on all cylinders if you appreciate the solution and take the line of actions suggested.

Kindly do not write off the remaining 90 days as a social exercise bidding farewell to old buddies or resign to the fate of helplessness that nothing else can be done anymore. Unlike Katrina, this is a man made crisis and can be resolved by human efforts alone. Your time for action starts now.

Ask any member of your cabinet or even great investors. They are all searching for the two ends in highly complex intertwined ball of ropes. No one will come close within 1000 yards to the solution that I have outlined after almost 6 months of day and night efforts.


Let me tell you briefly how my entire work is organized in almost 260 pages.

Modular design…
My work consists of 18 chapters on each subject of current economic or political troubles. It is in modular design. Each chapter is independent of the other in most cases, except where some correlation exists. Each chapter contains the problem identification, its origin, extent, size and seriousness of the problem, and most importantly, the Solution that is eluding the most. The solution is accompanied separately by Action Plan, Time Line and extent of qualitative and quantitative benefits that can be derived in prescribed time frame. Nothing is left to chance. Everything is target specific. Nothing vague. The report is written in very simple language without any technical cliché – even a person of ordinary intellect can understand it very clearly.


Assign each Chapter/Task to concerned Cabinet member or Department for target specific actions within definite time frame. All departments are given specific leads how to proceed so that details could be worked out by them in shortest possible time.



Chapter Contents

No. of Pages

For Notes and Comments


Sub  Prime  Crisis

·         Need  of  the  hour…  to  diffuse  the  financial  bomb

·         Identification,  Origin  and  the  size  of  the  problem

·         Crux  of  the  problems  to  fix    Foreclosure  and  Collapse  of  Derivatives

·         Suggested  Measures  to  stop  the  creation  of  further  bad  sub-prim e  loans

·         Legality  of  the  foreclosures,  and  how  the  borrowers  exploit  the  lenders.

·         Solution  for  Credit  Crisis  hurting  large  banks  and  brokers…Action  Plan




Reversing  Dollar  Flow

  • Full  range  of  target  specific  measures  to  reverse  the  dollar  flow      
  • There  are  two  m ore  chapters  one  has  to  read  with    Chapter  5,10,  14




Growth  &  Consumer Spending

·         Obsolete    theory  of  consumer  spending  leading  to  growth  in  GDP    

·         Spoilt  consumers  and  excessive  protectionism         

·         Consumers’  exploitation  by  Banks       




Using  Business   Immigration




US Dollar, Euro and Eurodollar

·         Understanding  complex  inter-relationship

·         How US financial system is attacked by a group of nations without even US knowing it

·         Relationship  with  Oil  prices,  how  to  cause  crash  in  oil  prices?

·         How  to  address  trillion  dollar  industry  with  ease  and  effect

·         One more  Parallel  economy and  how  to make the billions  out of it?




FED is not GOD

·         Excessive  reliance  on  FED  for  growth

·         Where the FED fails..?  Role of FED vs.  Treasury

·         FED Chairmanship vs.  American  Presidency

·         How FED creates unemployment?

·         Monetary Policy vs.  Fiscal  Policy

·         $  Carry  trades  in  low  interest  environment




Inflation  &  Growth    Misdirected  policies

·         Inflation, Stagflation, Growth and Expectation

·         Demand, Wage and never  recognized  Derivative induced  inflation

·         Correcting  the  policies




Non-inflationary  growth

·         Absurd  concept and misdirected policies as result

·         Creative  containment  of  inflationary  numbers




Long  Term  Interest  Rate  Policy

·         Ad  hoc  short  term  policy  on  Interest  rates  do  not  work

·         How to make LT Interest Rate policy dynamic?

·         How  to  contain  $  carry  trades  and  derivatives  with  LT  Interest  Policy




Humpty  Dumpty  Dollar  Down

·         How dollar drowns?

·         Dow vs. Dollar    before  10  years  and  now

·         Political  reasons  for  dumping  dollar

·         Political  actions  to  reverse  the  dollar  flow




Off shore to On shore




Introducing  Dynamic  Taxation

·         Americans’  flight  from  on  shore  to  off  shore.

·         Parabola  Structure  of  Taxation.

·         Current  Taxation  and  Rate  Structure    big  negative .

·         How  to  reward  efficiency  in  taxation  to  make  it  more  rewarding

·         How  to  increase  Corporate  tax  revenue  by  reducing  taxes

·         Dynamic  Taxation  policy  with  automatic  adjustment

·         Revising  Individuals  and  Corporate  tax  structure  with  full  tables (32 pages)

·         How US to benefit using Convertible Bonds of troubled borrowers?

·         How to reduce the tax rate and earn the billions more

·         Pro-Active  Taxation  policy


Plus 32 pages of Taxation schedule for Corporate and Individuals


Reviving  Auto  Industry

·         Funding  Auto industry to retain and increase jobs

·         Funding  Auto sector  via innovative  financing

·         Making  billions of Tax payers’ money  by helping Auto sector

·         Similar policy for Airlines as well




Oil Price

·         Who rockets the oil prices and how?

·         How to contain oil prices?  Relationship  between  ICE  and  NYMEX

·         Relationship  between  Oil  Prices  and  Dollar  at  various  centers

·         Comprehensive  plan  to  manage  and  control  oil  prices




Where is McKenna’s Gold?

·         Does US have 8134 tons of Gold as claimed?

·         Where the Gold has disappeared? Physical holding does not mean ownership. It is only a custodial holding.

·         Strong  dollar  policy and Gold – Dollar’s downfall

·         How to rebuild real gold reserve on dynamic basis to lend  strength to $




Dealing  with  Islam

·         Understanding  Islam

·         Peace  with  four  “I”    Islam, Iraq, Iran and Israel

·         Difference between Nationalist and Terrorist

·         Complete re-thinking of policy and bringing Islam within the realm of modern era

·         Policy of engagement vs. Confrontation

·         Dealing with Palestine, Lebanon and Israel – possible Action Plan.

·         Retreating from Iraq and engaging in its development.

·         Dealing with Iran and Islam

·         Dealing with Afghanistan and Osama  Bin  Laden

·         How Islamist will surrender terrorism?

·         Ending a war on terror and starting war for peace




US  Should  ….itself 

(Using defense technology for peaceful purpose)

·         Facing natural disasters like flooding, tornado, wild fires using defense technology

·         Converting  killing  machines into most modern weapons for  peaceful use

·         Converting passive military technology into $300 Billions a year export industry using US Army Corp

·         Better read this article in full rather than discussing it here







As you can see, the entire plan is very comprehensive. Full facts, figures, data are given in simple yet effective manner. It offers solution and tells the administration what to do rather than what others criticize what should not have been done. It is more directional. Written in the first person style, it is more interactive and evocative. No more beating around the bush – straight talk.


If you have interest, please contact me by email. I may not be available in Hong Kong for a few days due to family wedding which will be over by 26August, 2008.. I will provide you full contact details once I see firm interest in the above proposal. I will be in USA for a few days.


All the proposed actions can be taken within 45 days, allowing sufficient time for deliberation and discussion. It will be understood by all within minutes.


Terms of Engagement
I will disclose my terms of engagement, once I see the interest. If no proposal is received, I will publish my work in the form of a book after a few months. However, in that case, the US will lose first strike advantage, and some erring nations will go scot free. The trillions of dollars inflow and income will be lost. US will never be able to recover from present economic mess in which it is. The worst days will come if no actions are taken now to address the challenge.


My fees will be mostly performance based, except certain minimum. It will be based on simple formula.


Since this is an unsolicited offer, I do not expect any reply in case there is no interest. However, those who are handling this letter are requested to at least inform the President of the contents.


Hong Kong,
18 August, 2008


India’s ON and OFF Policy

with 21 comments

In today’s uncertain world, a few countries stand out on their own, of which India is one. There is everything one can think of finding – higher education, high savings rate, less papers or derivatives, huge population, efficient stock market, several millions of rich middle class wage earners, less debt, huge savings in real wealth like Gold and Silver, classy high tech manpower, world’s best design source, above average entrepreneurs, great creative and entertaining industry, least gambling resources, and a great democracy.

And yet, this giant dinosaur has been unable to find a single genuine pace bowler for its Cricket team, enough players to win the Olympic gold medals, really creative Prime Minister, Finance Minister, and Chief Operating Officers for SEBI (equivalent of SEC), and RBI (equivalent of FED in USA) from its thriving millions of population running across the country in every street and corner, sweating, smothering, bothering and yet smiling amid all odds against its existence.
What is wrong with this country? Its culture, Nay; Collectivism, partly; education, Nay; poverty, Nay; democracy, Nay; Contentment, yeah and lack of Killing Spirit – certainly Yes. Indians are notorious for self egoism, false patriotism and above all “eternal contentment” for whatever it has. Its desire for yearning is least. “Why do we need this? It is enough. We are happy with what we have” And that sets it apart from the rest of the dynamic western world.


India’s Info tech Glory and Visionary Jawaharlal Nehru

Indians have the extremely bad habit of not giving the credit where it is due. Take the example of its InfoTech Industry – now on the lips of every technocrat all around the world. It’s main creator and originator is forgotten as “Cause” and the “Result” is worshipped like a demi-god.

The seeds of high end Info tech were sawn by its first and most charming Prime Minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, a great visionary. With extremely limited sources at his command in early 50s, he maneuvered to obtain the great alliance with prestigious MIT in the United States, to set up 4 finest technical institutes – Indian Institute of Technology. And in remaining 60 years, the successive governments with almost 50 times monetary and ample human resources at their command could set up only 3 such institutes. He made the technical and engineering education so cheap and affordable, that India could produce talents at the cheapest cost.

His investment by way of subsidies in education, basic industries and oil refineries returned 100 times return in recent years. What he spent in millions on IIT brought in billions of dollars in Forex through thriving Info Tech industries. Even this author got 4 degrees for just Rs 4000 or $80 in 4 years.

When the British left India in 1947, they built 9 platforms at Bombay VT railway station when India’s population stood at 300 million; whereas in next 60 years, the successive Indian governments could build only 4 platforms at Bombay’s Church gate railway station with over 1 billion population! It is said that India is always on “Auto Pilot”. No one knows how it runs – it just walks in the wilderness.

Nehru dynasty gave leadership in the form of Jawaharlal Nehru itself, then Mrs. Indira Gandhi, Rajeev Gandhi (Son of Indira Gandhi) and now Mrs. Sonia Gandhi, head of ruling Congress party, and wife of Mrs. Gandhi’s elder son Rajeev Gandhi.

Even the Kennedy dynasty nowhere stands near the Nehru dynasty. The greatest contribution that Mrs. Indira Gandhi made was the green revolution and killing of all strength of pre-1947 Pakistan into two separate nations – Pakistan and Bangladesh.

And yet, all credits are given today to the likes of BJP Leader Vajpayee, the charismatic Prime Minister who merely exploded the Nuclear Bomb (It was built only with the vision of Nehru and Mrs. Indira Gandhi), Man Mohan Singh, the Prime Minister and P Chidambaram, the Finance Minister today for doing nothing substantially positive and lots of negative.

India has come a long way since 1950. Knowledge is no longer a power of a few. However, the kind of progress expected has not been achieved by India, and in fact, it is on the verge of losing major advantage if nothing is done now.

India’s disastrous policy measures in past, its effects and how that can be reversed with ease?

India’s de facto Central Bank – Reserve Bank of India – similar to FED in USA or Bank of England in UK, is a most revered institution in India. So also, Security and Exchange Board of India known as SEBI, equivalent of SEC in other countries, and stock exchanges like Bombay Stock Exchange – BSE and National Stock Exchange (NSE). They are given the status of demi-god by the admiring and ignorant semi educated urban class in India. The result is that these institutions, with possible exception of NSE in some cases, have become monolithic and inefficient organizations, with RBI leading the pack.

The officials of these bodies do not have experience in global money market, how certain powers manipulate the word market with ease, and therefore are very dogmatic in their views. They blindly follow the theories and practices of western and eastern world. As result, the economic, monetary and social policies fell far short of desired goals in last 50 years.

They do not realize that if certain standards with reference to which their policies are tailored are not yielding desired result, the standard itself must be wrong. As result, the measures initiated to adjust the imbalance often fail. Let us see the measures that failed India:

Belief, Policy Measures, Expectations and Final Result with Causes

Actuator: Finance Ministry, Reserve Bank of India, SEBI

Policy: Exchange Rate

BELIEF & PARADOX (In Blue prints)

1. Weaker Rupee helps exports and earns FOREX

2. Domestic Industries are protected against excessive and expensive imports

3. Jobs in domestic industries are protected and also promoted

4. Foreign Debt reduces due to FOREX earnings out of exports


Weaken Rupee by all means

1. RBI: Reduce NRE deposit rates – pay them much less than domestic deposit rates (6% less)

Even if NRI came to the country’s rescue in 1992 FOREX crisis, when India had to pledge Gold to Bank of England. NRI were treated like disposable towel

2. RBI: Do not let FII to buy Rupee from the market. Let them come to RBI directly to reward them with much higher rupee rate as enticement not to go to the market.

Even if it costs national exchequer hundreds of crores of rupees

3. FM, RBI: Sterilize any rise in the market by buying back dollar against rupee

Even at the cost of higher money supply leading to inflation

4. FM, RBI: Allow Indian Businessmen to invest overseas so that they buy dollars and sell rupee to cause it weaker and weaker.

While Foreign Investors were keen to invest in India, India was telling its businessmen NOT to invest in India but invest overseas, as though India had become one of the richest countries in the world. Even China after receiving almost $500 billion never thought of stopping the inward money flow and permitted Chinese to invest overseas

5. FM, RBI: Allow Indian citizens to remit overseas US$ 100,000 without RBI approval, so that pressure on rupee is reduced by letting them sell rupee and buy dollars.

While permission was not given to individual foreign investor to invest into Indian stock market as logical step further to widen the Indian markets or for direct investment, domestic Indians were asked to invest overseas, even when India was facing dearth of capital for building power plants, ports, Airports, national artery roads, sewerage, water filtration plants to reach every nook and corner of the country

6. SEBI, RBI: They introduced P-Note measures to scare away the foreign investors from India so that upward pressure on rupee is diminished.

7. SEBI: introduced arbitrary circuit breakers for market and individual stocks in the name of maintaining order which again scared the foreign investors who were faced with illiquidity in the invested counters. Some stocks had 5, 10, 15 or 20% up or down circuits that were fixed arbitrarily.

SEBI forgot main principle of free market that every investor has right to invest or disinvest in any stock at any time without hindrance. Even in market crash such as now, and in January 2008, the foreign and domestic investors were not able to sell the stocks at market because there was no market.

8. FM, RBI, SEBI: prohibited short selling on selected counters to arrest the market fall

If there were no restrictions on Long Buying of any stock, that lead to huge rise in Sensex from 2800 to 21000 (over 700%) in 5 years, why should there be ban on Short Selling of stocks or index?

Dogmas, False Policies and Misplaced Priorities

I have said often that if certain policies do not work with reference to standard for long time, there is something wrong with the standard itself. Such erroneous standard has to be abandoned. However, most of the policy makers and economists have been groomed in high end business schools that rely on outdated textbooks. These guys are not wise men but guys, who never worked on the front line, gained first hand experience, always sat behind the back bench, followed the books in full literary sense, and almost forgot that they too have common sense that was distributed by the God equally regardless of class, religion or nationality.

Why Rupee should be allowed to appreciate?

The weaker rupee policy did not work for 60 years, and yet the Prime Ministers, Finance Ministers, Reserve Bank of India’ Governors, followed the same policy 247365 or 24 hours a day, 7 days a week and 365 days a year for over 60 years. Rupee was devalued from Rs 4/$ to Rs 50/$ today with no tangible result.

Currency is an Ambassador of a Nation – it has to be strong

Currency is the first sign of strength of any country. Currency is a child of the nation by which a nation is recognized, same way the parents are recognized by their own children. Ask your self – Do you want strong children or weak children? You always say my son is this; my son is that, my daughter did well here; my children became engineer, doctor or MBA who will get us decent life from their earnings.

And what the same guys are doing while in charge of the country? They want their currency Rupee weak, so that it earns less, expends more, exports undersells country’s assets, imports overpays for the good, and the external debt soars only because of depreciation of the currency. These smart guys in RBI, SEBI, Finance Ministry and Prime Minister’s office know nothing, absolutely nothing. They are monkeys imitating blindly the western world, who want your national currency weaker so that they can buy cheaper from you and keep their inflation in check.

Weaker Rupee may help Exports, what about Imports?

Oh no, it will hurt exports! Really? What about imports? Are you not overpaying for the gigantic oil bill. Are you not overpaying for debt servicing? If Rupee is at Rs 45 and foreign debt is $100 billion, the national external debt is Rs 450,000 crores. If the rupee goes to Rs 39 as it did, the national debt reduces to Rs 390,000 crores. If rupee was allowed onward journey, it would have gone to Rs 26, and in that case, national debt would have come down to Rs 260,000 crores. You therefore saved Rs 190,000 crores just by letting the Rupee getting stronger.

And I do not say that manipulate rupee to get stronger (the way US does for dollar). What I want to say is that let it find its own level. Do not intervene when there is natural tendency to get stronger. Do not sterilize its rise. The sterilization operation is antibiotic. Continued practice of sterilization will kill its natural power to grow and get stronger. It is more like a person not wanting a child uses condom or birth control pill to sterilize the fertility for over 10 years. finds difficult to have child when he wants to, because the body has become immune to its natural power to produce. Treat economy like a body, and RBI’s sterilization and SEBI’s P-Note measures like birth control pills, and you will understand complex economics in a flash.

A person in a gym uses all equipments and tools to make every part of his muscle beautifully contoured and in shape. He then takes in healthy food, without which entire body will not respond to various form of physical exercise. Consider body as economy, policy measures as various tools for exercise and Rupee as lifeline food. If the food is weak or debilitating, the whole body is destroyed. It is a job of Finance Minister to imitate that practice to make every section of the economy well contoured and strong. The currency policy should be conceived and directed as suitable to the national needs, not international or IMF demand.

How External Debt gets reduced by Stronger Rupee?

If you want to earn Rs 190,000 crores by way of FOREX earnings out of exports, and if the export margin is 10%, the exports have to be additional 1,900,000 crores, provided none of the debt going bad. Further, if rupee had gone higher, Government could have reduced the external debt by simply selling rupee, buying dollars and liquidating the debt say, $ 15 billions.

False Praise leads to Wholesale Destruction

Often the names of financial officials in the country were mentioned on the top covers of magazines like Forbes, Fortune, International Banker, IFR, IMF Review etc. Whenever their names appear on such magazines, take for granted that they are least qualified for that post. Those who do not get proper jobs in their own country lend up at world Bank and IMF, where decisions were never taken and such posts were official retirement with full pay every month. It is a warehouse of inefficient. That resume however works in India.

India is a country that believes in enormous adulation. Gods, Goddesses, Gurus, Cricketers, Hollywood actors, high court judges, politicians and officials in RBI, SEBI, NSE and BSE are all elevated to the extreme status. Gods and Goddesses never listen, Gurus always need bhakta jan to wash their feet and drink that holy water, Cricketers and Actors are easy pass time, and inefficient judges in various courts who have been caging justice for over 20 years, take 3 times vacation, larger than your own children, never deliver justice in time prompting citizens to approach for alternative judiciary of Mafias or Bhais to give them “Supari”, politicians like Advani go on blurting about building Ram Temple, instead of building mass housing for the poor Indians, and officials in RBI go on having “condom sex” with economy by sterilizing operation, and officials in SEBI go on inventing rules like P-Notes how to drive out the Foreign Investors. When they were coming, they were asking why you are coming, and when they are going, they are asking why they are leaving. What the hell do you want, you fickle minded babus?

Indians never saw Lower Oil Prices at Rs 10/ltr when Oil fell all time low to $10/brl

Due to consistent weaker rupee, the petrol prices always rose like mercury in thermometer. When the oil fell all time low to $10 per barrel or Rs 400 per 159 liters or Rs 2.33 per liter, Indian never saw petrol or diesel prices falling to Rs 10 per liter. This is what the misguided Rupee policy did for Indian consumers

Currency (Rupee) Never Remain at Same Level – like Water, it finds its own level

The currency movement is always dynamic. The sum total of entire economy is represented by currency. If it does not go down, it goes up; and if it does not go up, it goes down.

During BJP administration, Rupee was allowed to appreciate to Rs 43 from Rs 48. It continued to Rs 39 when the officials in RBI and Finance Ministry were alarmed. SEBI started talking about Rupee when it was none of its business. These are fiscal and monetary matters, not stock market that is the domain of RBI and Finance Ministry. They invented P-Note related measures that were the harbinger of downward movement of Rupee. It just dropped from Rs 39 to Rs 50 yesterday, when Indian economy was supposed to be having highest growth in the world, Forex reserve at over $300 billions, and every sector of the economy was on four cylinders.

These wise guys applied screeching brake with the result that money simply evaporated, stock markets crashed, rupee crashed, interest rates rose, inflation rose to over 13%, oil subsidies went through the roof, and many other countless collateral damage such as recession, lower home prices, higher food prices, and what not.

If Islamic punishment of stoning to death was allowed in India, the officials in finance Ministry, Reserve Bank of India and SEBI fully deserved that capital punishment. They destroyed vibrant economy; they dealt death blow to the aspirations of Indian people, they sank India into deeper external debt (by additional at least Rs 60,000 crores), they caused Oil bill to rise by Rs 16000 crores due to depreciation effect of the Rupee, they caused first time home owners life miserable by increasing their EMI by over 6% per year or Rs 3000 per month per Rs 100,000 of mortgage loan, they raised the borrowing cost of almost all business enterprises by minimum 3% , cost of energy rose by 20%, and only the life of human (Made in India) became cheaper.

Due to single most reason – Weaker Rupee

(To be continued further that will be appended here. Full article will then be converted into PDF file for download)

Kalidas, Hong Kong

Ref: 08-010 – India’s ON and OFF policy

Note: Due to problem with the WordPress software, the article can not be properly formatted earlier. It has been withdrawn and substituted with this one. The comments associated with the previous one may not be available here, but I will try to put them if possible.


Retiring President’s Parting Gift to Paulson

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Buy Rotten Eggs for $700 Billion in 36 days

The first mistake the Americans made 8 years ago was when they forgot to get the incoming President’s head examined. There is always an intense debate for the suitability of any candidate for the coveted post of the President. More emphasis is always given how the next Commander-In-Chief would act in case of exigencies. No one asked them of their basic knowledge of economics except how much taxes would he reduce.


Visit any Forex traders or option trader’s website – they give you $ 1 million to play a demo game. Never before any presidential candidate was asked to play such demo game in public debate. Never before any presidential candidate was asked what will you buy if you were given $700 billion of Taxpayer’s money?


However, on the historic Sunday, 28th September 2008 to be precise, a bipartisan agreement was arrived at to authorize the President Bush to succumb to the wishes of the Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson to spend $700 Billions of tax payers’ money to buy rotten eggs lying in the vaults of Banks and Brokers in his last 36 days!


When a person is dying, his last wishes are asked for by the relatives circling on him just to listen how much he would get if that fellow dies. When a criminal is condemned to death, his last wishes are asked for before his head is shaven off in preparation for his journey to the death. Hank Paulson did not have to have his head shaven off. His wish was $700 Billions – and America’s most retarded President in the history granted the wish to spend $700 Billion in 36 days! He was joined by the chorus of congressmen/women to tell their Commander in Chief – Yes Sir. The President said – I did not hear you! The congressmen raised their pitch – Yes Sir, Yes Sir, Yes Sir.


Ask any businessmen or any person of ordinary prudence – would he give his departing employee even $700,000 of authority when he has already resigned and counting his last 30 notice days? Of course No, then how come the President of United States hands over blank checkbook to his Treasury Secretary with unchecked power of $700 billion when he is counting his last 36 days?. If something goes wrong later – Mr. Paulson would say” I have right to remain silent.” Look at the bill you have passed in the Congress. – No questions to be asked. Period.


Only a few months ago, the President Bush with great fanfare distributed Tax Rebate checks to American citizens amounting to $106 billions only to withdraw $ 700 billions from their and their future generations’ pocket on today (28 Sept 08) like a conman. During his presidency, over 4000 soldiers lost lives in Iraq, 1000 more in Afghanistan, over a million innocent people died in Iraq, Twin towers of World Trade Centers were destroyed, billions of dollars of budget surplus was converted into whopping deficits, US Dollar dropped by 40%, hurricanes destroyed several cities, wildfires raged in and tons of mud sided in California,  millions lost jobs and homes, oil prices rose from low 30s to high 145, and industries collapsed one by one – from Auto, airlines, healthcare, Medicare, insurance, brokers, investment banks, and banks for only one reason. He was thoroughly incompetent.


Now, let us consign all events until today’s night into history, and focus what will or could happen from now on to the financial markets around the world. Here are the posers and possibilities.






Is it a done deal? Will it become a law?


Preliminary agreement is struck. While leaders have agreed, it is not known whether the rank and file senators will vote for the bill. They have been getting angry response from their constituencies to vote against, There have been street protests in California, Anger is building up which may become violent. US is heading towards unrest and then civil war in a few months.


What will happen to the market?


Paulson wanted to get the bill signed by the President before the world market opens tomorrow. He expects the market to give solid response. However, the market is always an unpredictable beast. World markets do not act on themselves. They wait until the US market opens. Further, the market movement depends on the major brokers. As you are aware, most of the leading Investment banks like Bears Stearns, Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch are either in the coffin or ICU. The credit crunch is so much that most of the brokers do not have money to pump into the market and take their proprietary position.


However, Goldman Sach and Morgan Stanley, now being banks, will be given billions of dollars to buy into overseas markets, especially near day close, if the markets do not move up strongly in the morning trades.


Will the bank start lending and reduce the liquidity freeze?


Doubtful. Most banks from Citibank to UBS have raised capital from the market in the form of High coupon (9% to 11%) preference shares in billions of dollars. They will be forced to retire high cost debt, leaving little in their coffer.


Further, more and more debts are being generated in the market due to sub prime default that makes more and more derivatives doubtful. The banks will be forced to pay to the counterparty in respect of future obligations. It can not plead that it does not have money. The creditors may sue the banks to either pay or file bankruptcy. There is no chapter 11 for banks, only Chapter 7 and 13 that compulsorily winds up the company.


The mistrust has been built into the market so much that the counterparty risk has risen to the highest level. Under these circumstances, the interbank transactions will remain low. The collapsing banks in USA, UK, and rumors of failures in centers like Hong Kong, will continue to make the market difficult for lending.


Corporate lending may take a while. The commercial paper market has become like a junk bond market with interest rates running in high single digit to low double digits even for blue chip customers. The real interest rates are perking up.


What happens to the Equity markets?


They will open high but then retrace after 2 hours, again peaking up near the close due to US funds buying with billions of dollars in blank checks.


The real rally may come only after the reaction of the US market. Tuesday may be stronger than Monday, provided no negative news emerges on deal front.


How  the markets may react?


  • Dollar block country may do best – Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, Korea may choke 3% to 5% gain initially, go down by 3% in correction, to peak up gain near close by another 3% to close at 8% maximum.
  • Japan may gain by 3% to 5%.
  • Sensex may gain 600 points initially, depending on how the Asian markets have reacted, to lose 300 pts, to make up morning losses as soon as London market opens strongly. If London is lower, due to another bank failure, the Sensex may lose steam. US brokers may not be that active in India market. They need more money at home than park them overseas.
  • Dow Jones may chalk up over 400 pts gain because of massive short covering of Index weighted financial shares. If the bill is passed into law on following day in the congress, then all financials will rally.
    • It is possible that the Banks and Brokers may start reporting profits due to write back of excess provisions caused by higher market value manipulations.
    • If in the meanwhile Mark to Market rule is abolished, the bonds may be re valued to par value on HTM or Hold Till Maturity principle. (In this case, ICICI Bank may also benefit in India)
    • Some large hedge funds may fold up due to changing of rule of short selling of shares in the middle of a game. The losses may run into billions of dollars. If they save the banks, the hedge funds get busted. Will Paulson plan save them too?
    • There could be thousand of law suits in UK and USA against authorities from hedge funds, pension funds for losing money due to sudden changing of short selling rules in middle of the game.
  • Bond market may behave differently, Initial rally may fizzle out. The collapse of banking system has just started. British banks, once considered safe may come into more problems. The bank failures are spreading to every where. From USA to across Atlantic – UK, Germany, Belgium (Benelux countries), Hong Kong and more will follow in Asia and Japan. Many have not shown yet where do they stand. Almost all Asian and Japanese banks are saddled with the American CDO, CDS, and Lehman Bonds that run into billions. When Lehman owed over $600 billions, the question arises – to whom? Those who are trying to buy Lehman because by buying them out, the cross entries will be eliminated.
  • The British banks like HSBC may have more losses. If you look at their balance sheets in Yahoo, there are hundreds of billions or even trillions of dollars of transfer between various assets –
    • long term assets were reduced by 800 billions and short term liabilities rose by $1.2 trillions, ($1200 Billions)
    • Long term Investments rose by $ 1 trillions.($1000 Billions)
    • Cash resources depleted by $300 billions.
    • Its capital is just $88 billions against total liabilities of $2.2 trillions or just 3%.
    • In other words, all off balance sheet assets and liabilities of off shore centers have been brought into the main balance sheets. How much of such trillions of dollars is good, we do not know.  See the following link…
    • In short the balance sheet severely deteriorated. This applies to almost all banks who have tied up with USA and who bought US banks or brokers 3 to 5 years ago amid lots of fanfare.
  • The dollar index may gain initially.
  • Commodity price may see fall. Metal stocks may fall worldwide again.
  • Gold too may fall initially by 6% to 8% in 2 or 3 sessions. However, the gold is having lot of real strength. After initial euphoria, it may rise again.
  • Oil Prices may fall due to shorting of futures against buying of $ index. The oil prices are bearing the stamp of Rupert Rubin, ex-Goldman Sach Vice President and former Treasury Secretary and now top executive of Citigroup. With blank checkbook in the hands of Paulson, some billions may be given to old colleague to short the oil and strengthen the dollars
    • It may be noted that recent spike in oil price by $25 in single day was due to short covering of oil contracts ahead of settlement on Nynex. Under the current rules, the settlement is subject to physical delivery. So the short sellers have to either buy back the contracts or deliver millions of barrels of oil physically that they do not have.
    • This scenario may be repeated in November. While buying back the September contracts at huge premium, they shorted the November contracts again in roll over exercise. If the oil prices remain strong, expect another major spike in oil prices in November. Oil is now most manipulated market with the use of derivatives.
    • There are all signs that another Enron is in the making, this time, 20 times larger. Which company is used now, is not known.
  • Interest Rates will go much higher and you should not be surprised, if they get into high double digits in less than 6 months. The lower credit rating of US governments by Fitch and others in oveseas countries (Moodys and S&P will not change their loyalty) may again push up the rates.  If the rates does go to even 12%, the US government will have to service their debt of over $13 trillions @ $ 1.5 trillion per year of repeat expenses.


Does it mean that USA is on recovery path?


Absolutely not. The manipulative effect does not last longer, especially when the trillion dollar scale is considered. The States and Local government who need over $200 billions to manage their state, may raise their ugly head and demand payment when 3 times more money is given to bankrupt banks. USA is receding into civic unrest and Civil war slowly and surely.


Is there severe discontent among Americans at the current Bail Out plans


Americans are damn angry. They are losing jobs, homes, healthcare, Medicare every thing… They have now converging on the streets with big banners. If the bill is passed into law, they will flare up, and the anger will spread across the nation like a Californian wild fire. Since guns are freely licensed in USA, there is likely to be mayhem and the ordinary civic unrest will escalate into full scale Civil War. They have to ban gun immediately before situation worsens.


This may happen swiftly, even before election. We should be very happy that it does not happen; In fact it should not happen or should not be allowed to happen. For the first time, US Administration will have to use bullets on their own soil to kill the American themselves instead of killing millions of peoples abroad in self engineered war of massive scale.


What should an Investor do now?


This is pet line of CNBC in its advertisement for which they never reply. The present scenario is very unstable, and changes from moment to moment. It is more akin to war. Deal with it as it comes. No planning is going to work, except holding some portion in gold.


Is there any solution to the present mess?


Of course, yes. The trouble right now is that no one knows what has suddenly happened and why so swiftly. Watch for my book “Sub Prime Resolved”: that contains complete solution and also wait for my next article here – How we got here? Legalizing Parallel Economy”


Are we to worry about every thing?


No. The problem will take care of itself. For every problem, there are 10 solutions, One has to find it. I have found them, and sent out a letter to appropriate authorities who received them by FEDEX on 25th August, 2008, but they did not reply. Who is by the way Kalidas? Never heard of him.

Kalidas, Hong Kong

Written by anilselarka

September 29, 2008 at 1:32 pm

Paulson’s Poison Pill – Cost $700 Billions

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Defrauding American Tax payers of $700 Billions in Mouse Trap Plan

Both Mr. Paulson and Mr. Bernanke displayed extreme concern to protect the interests of American Tax payers while seeking $700 Billions from their existing pocket or from their 5 coming generations. One generation may not be able to take so much of load.  The question arises, whether their bail out plan was genuine or was it the proposal from these con-men to manipulate whole financial system and defraud the American Tax Payers? These public servants are supposed to follow the best practices and protect the pockets of the tax payers. Do they? 


If you read what Bernanke said during the Congressional hearing, you will ask “Where is the protection of Tax payers under the $700 billion plans? Mr. Bernanke said he was not in favor of paying the price of “Fire sale”. Mr. Paulson said that he was willing to buy the Bad Debts at substantial discount (about 35%), that is, paying $65 for every $100 face value of the debt and holding them until maturity (HTM or Held Till Maturity). To one question from the Senator, how much the securities are worth now, Mr. Bernanke said only a few cents! Oh my God! Mr. Bernanke is in charge of FED overseeing the dollar that only he can print which bears the imprint “In God We Trust”. In reality, they care the least about the God.


Read them together, the Paulson – Bernanke plan foresees the payment of 65% of face value of $100 for the Bad Debts currently trading at few cents (about 20 cents to 98 cents). What is the Asset backing? Big Zero. Why? Because all derivative papers are secondary mortgage papers or mortgage with second lien that gets paid only after primary lender is paid off. Since the primary lender has foreclosed, seized and sold the mortgaged property, and he retains both the surpluses and deficits under the law, nothing is left for the secondary mortgage holders who have to rely upon the mortgaged property alone. They have no other recourse or option to realize their dues.


The question arises, why Bernanke and Paulson are bent upon paying $65 when the security backing is ZERO and current market is just 20 cents. That is, they are willing to pay the premium of 320 times or 32,000% more than the market value. As public servants, they have fundamental responsibility to look after the interests of the American Tax Payers (ATP), and buy the assets at the best bargain price or at least current prevailing price. Anything contrary to this dictate, amount to betrayal of and defrauding the tax payers to the extent of $700 billion dollars” 

Holding Till Maturity
…A great deception
Mr. Paulson said that he (treasury) would hold the securities until maturity to realize the full value. There is no market for those securities at the moment, he said… Since the Treasury will have no tangible security under the secondary mortgage paper and it can not sue the borrowers due to non recourse nature of the mortgage, the possible value realization is ZERO, whether he hold them for one year, 10 years, 30 years or 100 years. That is, the entire amount of $700 billions will turn to ZERO almost instantly when distributed or used to buy the bad debts


Why do Paulson/Bernanke duo want passage of bill before September, 2008 end?

Mr. Paulson and Bernanke also want clean passage of bill before this weekend, that is, before the September end. Also, significant is the ending of ban on short selling of financial shares 2 days later or October 2, 2008. Again read them together. What Mr. Paulson and Bernanke seek to achieve by hustling agreement before September end? Here is the possible explanation.


Manipulating the Market Price of worthless Derivatives

September is the end of the quarter or Q3. The quarterly result or Q3 for the period ended September 2008 will arrive in the market in second or third week of October. If the bad debts are bought before September quarter, new market price will be established @ $65 against just 20 cents at present. Under the MTM or Mark to Market rule, the securities are marked to market price for valuation purpose. By paying the price of $65 against just 20 cents, almost all banks will be valuing their portfolio at newly established market price – $65 against 20 cents.


This is nothing but the manipulation of the market price by artificial means. All banks, investment banks, and brokers will be re-valuing their portfolio based on concocted market price under MTM rules, and they will start reporting bogus profits by reversing the excess provision in the past and providing less for the future. If this was to be pursued, why did not he propose it before Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers and Merril Lynch came into serious trouble? They could have been saved and prevented the domino effect in the world financial markets. Thousands of investors could have saved billions of dollars of losses, and the present scenario would not have arisen.

What happens if the $700 billion proposal is passed before September end?
If the budget is passed before September quarter, there will be huge rally in financial shares. When the short selling ban on 799 financial shares is lifted by SEC on October 2, there will be fierce short covering rally that may see the financial shares choking up 20% to 60% gain in single session. When the reporting season starts in mid October, all bank shares will show tremendous improvement in their profit and balance sheet due to use of concocted market price that will fuel further rally.

Looks Banks and brokers will be saved…But who will be the losers? – Tax Payers. How?
If some one gains, some other loses. Who will be the loser? Of course, American Tax Payers who’s $700 Billions will be gone forever. Their bonds have neither tangible security nor any other recourse to pursue the defaulting borrowers. The next 5 American generations will never pardon the President Bush, Mr. Paulson, the Treasury Secretary , Mr. Bernanke, FED chief and Mr. Cox, the SEC Chief for criminal waste of $700 billions, misrepresentation and fraud for which they will never be tried – for ever.


What should be the correct approach?
Instead of manipulating and falsifying the entire debt market, and losing Tax payers’ $700 billions in a flash, it is time to let the bankrupt banks to really go bankrupt and not spend even a single good dollar after every bad dollar. The nation will be better off in granting $300 billions to remaining good small regional banks to ease the credit crunch which will be more satisfying than distributing largesse to bankrupt banks, investment banks and brokers.


If the banks and brokers were to be saved from complete disaster in the interest of the economy, the accounting rule should have been amended to permit these culprits to consolidate their debts in some warehouse similar to RTC, without any sort of federal guarantee to save the taxpayers, and be allowed to be written of in 10 years @ 10% of such losses.

What is true Capitalism?
In true practice of capitalism, the efficieny is rewarded, and inefficieny penalized. The present practice of Paulson and Bernanke mocks fun at capitalism. The present plan is not a “bail out” but mouse trapping the Americans.


Lady Liberty may be crying in the middle of the sea, lamenting “What happened to my America” 


Kalidas, Hong Kong

September 26,2008

Written by anilselarka

September 26, 2008 at 3:47 pm