Financial Wisdom – By Kalidas

Radical Solution for Credit Crisis from Kalidas

Rebalancing Portfolio in Depressed Market

with 51 comments

Everyone makes money in Bull markets. It is said that the bulls are the friends of the fools. This is why when the bulls get slaughtered in the market crash; the fools are the first victims. They are the most hopefuls of the lots. They tend to believe that there will be always sunshine. They ignore the earnings and warning signs, garland the high flyers in the name of growth, and greet the Mergers and Acquisitions as the sign of positive interest in their economies.

 

However, regardless of the pains, they enjoyed the journey and whatever minor gains they earned for their smartness. The market correction comes from nowhere, without notice, without anything appearing on CNBC or other business channels, and that is what called the “Market surprise”. Often the media blurts on both horns that “market says this, market says that, market will go here, market will go there etc”. This is very amusing. The market never talks; it just behaves the way it wants to. The innocent investors, who are normally late entrants; read, hear and watch 100 times same item and get carried away.

 

I always used to teach my customers that you never make investments by reading newspapers or watching CNBC, NDTV or other stocks channels. When the news is known to everyone, there is no more secrecy left, and the stock pattern reverses itself.

 

Now that one has burnt his finger as a speculator, he qualifies to become an Investor. The losses are the tuition fees that one pays to learn from the bears. The bulls just kick, bears never do. This is why there is always a “Bear Hug’. Only those hug who are our friends or well wishers. Those who invest in bear market make the most money by design and planning with lots of thoughts. Those who invest in bull market make small money many times by accident. However, when they lose, all of their past gains disappear in a flash. It is the bull’s nature to kick. Have you ever heard the term “Bull Hug”? 

 

Not many cope with the stress and the problem. They begin to distrust everyone, same way the banks do not trust each other today. All are in same boat.


Learn this Primer before you proceed further
When you were in normal or bull market…

You were perhaps entering after watching others making money (that they falsely claim – never believe them). Your entry level is perhaps high. Do the following:

  1. Treat each transaction (A1, A2, and A3) of each stock (A, B C) as separate transaction. Never count the Average Cost
    1. Sell the transaction whenever you are in profit by at least 11%.
    2. Thus if you are losing in A1 but making money in A2 and the stock is not going further, sell A2 and retain cash – do not employ elsewhere.
    3. If the stock A goes higher, do not regret your decision for selling A2. You still have A1, so sell it if the stock has made big move recently.
    4. If the stock goes down, buy back the same stock, if you believe that its full potential is not reached as yet.
  2. NEVER hate yourself for any mistake. It is natural. You are your best friend and worst enemy. You decide what you want.
  3. Never ignore your mainstay business while investing in stock market. Remember, you got money to invest only from your mainstay business.  
  4. Keep two boxes – RED and GREEN.

When you make money, deposit 10 Cents/Paisa per 100 (0.10%) in either box if you booked losses or gains. For example, if you make 1,000, deposit Rs/$1 in your green box. If you have booked loss, put it in red box. At the end of any period, see how many units are in Red and Green. If Red contains 20 and Green 30, you made a gain of 10 x 1000 – 10,000

 

 

  1. Avoid buying IPO in bull market because they are always hyped up and valuation is rich. When the stock does not have history, do not touch it as far as possible unless you have special reasons to do so. The idea of becoming instant money on opening day of the trading is dangerous. I never bought IPO in my life.

 

EXAMPLE: Look what happened to Reliance Power IPO (in India). While it is at depressed level, in this market crash, Goldman Sachs has come up with the negative recommendation lowering the target even further. Where was the Goldman at IPO stage? All brokers are suckers in the game – When it is good, they call it best; and when it is bad, they call it worst. When they want to see the price higher, they talk about the company vs GDP, Infrastructure, and growth etc – all big things. When their call goes wrong or the market crashes, they start talking about the fundamentals.

  1. Read, listen and watch everything and everybody but make your own decision. God has given you a tiny little brain which is thousand times more powerful that Intel dual core chips. Use it while you are human, otherwise in next birth (if you believe in reincarnation), the God will make you an insect or animal that does not need a versatile brain of human. The same way a banker cancels customers’ credit line if he no longer uses it.
  2. Reverse the transaction as soon as possible if you ever thought that you made a mistake due to impulse. For instance, you bought a stock by error, just sell it right in the market, regardless of loss you have. Similarly, if you have sold something by mistake, buy back immediately. (The reason is that if you continue, it stings you even at night and you will continue to blame yourself.  This is the biggest mistake an investor makes.) In stock market, the only thing that counts is the Decision, Decision and only Decision, just in case of property where the rule for selection is Location, Location and only Location. How much you lose in reversing your faulty decision immediately – only 1% to 3%? Just take it, instead of losing 20% to 70% later.

 

In stock market or for that matter, in any market, only decision makers make money in the long run. The indecisive person  always tend to lose and they blame their own fate or lady luck for their loss. Both fate and lady luck amuse themselves. They know their job is thankless.

 

Restructuring the troubled Portfolio for quick Turnaround

Remember, the market is an ocean. Anything you throw into the ocean always comes back. The ocean is large hearted – it never retains anything for its own use. Similarly, what you throw into the market will ultimately come back, provided you follow the market discipline. All the points mentioned under 1 to 7 apply to the depressed market as well.

 

  Now that you have lost heavily, do not brood over it. It is a fact. The loss is a history. You can not roll it back. Your aim should be how to recover and turn this cheaper opportunity into good profit. This is the art you will have to learn and practice.

 

At any time, you feel that you are indecisive, follow the mentioned rules in two parts – Actual and Demo. When you are unable to decide with physical involvement, play it out on paper in demo exercise. Write down the date, time and index when you took the actions. It is provided in this Article’s PDF copy with excel in the download center on right bar.

 

 

  1. If your portfolio is very large, more than 12 stocks, you will have to prune down the list to 12 or less. Check your list and determine what you hate and would not have. (Example – Watch the growing plant; if some shoots are blackened, the gardener prune them out to save the whole plant. He also prunes the healthy shoots to promote the growth. An investor should also take the profit in same stock occasionally)
  2. When the market recovers, the large cap stocks recover first. So determine, whether you have any large cap stocks. If you do not have any, buy some first. When the market is sufficiently advanced, sell the large caps and focus on the mid or small caps held by you.
  3. NEVER think that if the stock at 100 is expensive and at 30 it is cheap. All prices are relative to earnings. See the price relative to earnings (P/E)
  4. If the market sentiment is negative to extreme, DO NOT invest fresh money;  instead do the following:
  5. Re-Check which stocks you want to retain for long haul.
  6. If you own high priced stock, and loss is not much, sell it to raise the cash for redeployment later.
  7. Identify the sector that might benefit more on recovery. You will be buying stocks in those sectors first. Within that sector, you have to identify top 2 or 3 stocks. The selection of stock is more like a beauty contest. They eliminate 45 contestants to come to final 5, then 3 and then the final one.
  8. Identify which stock has the least loss and one has maximum loss. Sell the stock with least loss (say 20%) and buy the one with greater loss (say 50% or more). By doing so, you are averaging down the cost of the bigger loser with same amount of money, without pumping new money.
  9. If the stock has come down by 70%, (say 30 from 100), the stock has to more than triple from low level. So, buy 3 times more than original quantity (if you own 300 @100, buy 1200@30). My rule is simple; if the stock has become 1/3rd, buy 3 times; if 1/4th, buy 4 times and 1/5th buy 5 times. Of course, you do not buy all at same time, but in 3 stages; 2 on way down and one on way up so that you know that the bottom has finally reached.
  10. When you swap from one stock to another, always ensure that you are getting into smaller value stock from higher value (not other way round). The low value stocks (not penny stocks, but the stocks above 8 and below 20) tend to rise fast due to low base. They make more % gains. It works other way too. They tend to go down faster as well in down market. For instance, if stock A (at 300 ) has come down to 160, and other stock B in same industry has dropped from 100 to 20, then in that case, provided there are no stock specific news, sell the stock A and use the proceeds (160) to buy 8 shares of stock B @20. Since the industry is same, the stock B may show better gains than stock A due to rise in that sector. Please note that this arithmetic is an approximate science, but works all the time. There is nothing to replace earnings as key driver to stock prices. Do demo exercise to start with to understand this game.
  11. When you have a choice, avoid buying holding company’s stock. Instead buy the major subsidiaries stock. The reason is that if the parents (holding company) run into troubles, they sell Children (subsidiaries) that become takeover play giving you more than average return. For instance, when Ford (US Automaker) ran into trouble, it sold Jaguar in UK and is trying to sell 30% stake in Mazda. Big companies are also bigger fools – they do not cut the losses but allowed it to run, like most investors in stock market. The correct strategy is to let the profit run and cut the losses immediately. Normally, people take the profit first and let the losses run. When some one says that he is having portfolio of 1 Million, presume that in 80% he is losing. When he makes money quickly, he admires himself as smart investor; and when he loses, he calls him Warren Buffet – a long term investor.
  12. Bring down the list to 12 or below. Do not focus on other stocks unless they offer better value. How many children you have? 2 to 5 or more than 20? Keep the inventory list to the extent you can effectively manage.
  13. After doing above adjustments, relax, have a coffee, go for a movie in Cinema (not at home) and have a fresh look at the reformed portfolio. Just as the pruned plant needs time, but it does prosper very fast, your portfolio will bloom soon.
  14. Study those stocks in details, paying special attention to their behavior, how they move up or down, in size and speed, and its volume. If the price rise or fall is not accompanied by volume, the movement is erratic.
  15. Remember you will not use the law of averages while making decision. Each purchase is a separate deal. If that deal makes money, you should be prepared to sell.
  16. Do not try to make money in every deal. It is impossible. See the overall position, whether you made money in the portfolio (not individual stocks) or not.
  17. Watch the market movement, government policy, concerned industry, and the industry that may benefit
  18. Invest new funds only when you feel that the market has stabilized and may not go down more. Allow the market to come up by 15% from all time low before deciding to invest more new money.
  19. It is always more profitable to average up than average down. In such case, your average cost is always below the market. For instance, if A 200 cost in bull market was 100 for 200 shares, and then crashed to 20, you buy 3 times at 20, 18 and 25. Then when it reaches to 40 and retraces to 35, buy some more. The idea is to catch the upward trend. Please note that this imperfect science. It all depends on the mental make up of an investor, and circumstances prevailing at that time.
  20. Always be alert and agile even if you are not participating in the market due to bad conditions. Always keep the market conditions right under your eyes. You never know when the screaming opportunity would arise.
  21. Be stock specific rather than market specific. If certain stocks go down more due to reasons peculiar to the industry, buy that stock regardless of the market conditions.
  22. EXAMPLE: When the oil prices were very high, near 145, the Airline stocks were very low, so also the refineries. They would have come down more due to industry specific reasons. Buy them.
  23. DO NOT sit over the stock like a Chicken hatching an Egg. If the stock has gone up higher and slows down, simply sell that stock at the market even if recent high could not be reached. When it comes down, buy it back. Do not use that money for other stocks. In other words, in bear market you float with the stocks.
  24. EVEN IF you make wrong decisions, do not worry. It is better to make 3 wrong decisions than not making any at all. Once you start making decisions, you will improve progressively with the result that you may one day make a big killing that will compensate you for all past losses. It will also improve your character. In every form of business or personal life, you will begin to make decisions rather than keeping the issues on back burner. Delay is gone from your life forever.

 

  1. Sit before Candle at night for 10 minutes.. .  When you lose money, you do not get sleep easily. What you must do is to sit before a lighted candle for 10 to 15 minutes just before you go to bed. Focus only on light. Deep breathing also help you focus better. Inhale from left nostril and exhale from right. Presume that gains are coming in when you breathe and losses are moving out when you exhale. This has nothing to do with finance or stock market. It just makes you focus on trade as well when you transact. Secondly, it costs you nothing and gets everything.
  2. And finally, Dress Up at your Best during Bear phase… When you dress up well, you feel good and charming. You will begin to respect yourself. This is what you need. Money comes to those who are neat and clean. Good things always bring in good result – that is the rule of the nature. So do it.

 

I enclose the Hypothetical Portfolio and how is it restructured (go to the side bar – Download Center, scroll down to excel file – Rebalancing portfolio – 08-008 and download this file). This applies to all markets. Replace the names and indices as appropriate to your country. It is an excel spreadsheet where you can replace my entries with your stock name and quantity and price. You can modify to your needs as the time passes by.

 

Please remember, the Gains and Losses are the form of day and night. They come and go all the time. Face them like a Lion, not a Lamb. You are your best friend and your worst enemy. Pick up what you want.

 

 

This reminds me of a friend who died some time back. He used to display a banner in his home as under ( English translation from Gujarati – an Indian language)

 

These Days shall Never Be Forever

 

I asked him what it meant. He said:

 

In good days, it forewarns me not to overspend.

Good days never last forever.  Save something when there is sunshine.

 

In bad days, it encourages me not to despair.

Do not spare your efforts.  Double up.  After all, these bad days too do not  last forever.

 

Kalidas, Hong Kong

14-Oct-2008  Article ref: 08-008-Rebalancing Portfolio

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51 Responses

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  1. Dear Kalidas sir,
    What an inspiring article. millions of people would be happy reading the article. I read more than 10 times and preserved a copy both soft and hard copy. This will be useful for my children when they grow up ( currently studying in std 9th and 4th). Blessed are we who knew your identity through MMB.
    Thanks and regards
    Ravi, Chennai

    Ravi

    October 15, 2008 at 8:09 pm

  2. Dear Sir,

    Very nice. I read the world famous book “The Intelligent investor” and your ideas have striking similarity this book esp. regarding the IPO. However
    you have a dynamic idea to reorganize the portfolio which is not there in the book.

    Regards,
    v8r.

    v8r

    October 15, 2008 at 8:11 pm

  3. Kalidasji,
    Iam sure your blog writings will inspire & educate many like me and make us more financially literate than we are.
    BTW when is your book going to be out ?

    Deekay

    October 15, 2008 at 8:39 pm

  4. Thanks a lot Sir… this is a selfless service to the whole world.

    Regards,
    Vivek

    Vivek

    October 15, 2008 at 9:01 pm

  5. Dear Sir,

    Thank you very much for write and inspiring and very useful guide to your reader. Your selfless service is immeasurably valuable. Its a guiding light to every reader of yours. Thank you again

    Warm regards,
    Rajmohan

    Rajmohan babu

    October 15, 2008 at 9:07 pm

  6. Dear Sir,
    Thanks A ton for another amazing, inspiring and practical article.
    Take Care,
    Prakash

    Dutchman

    October 15, 2008 at 10:05 pm

  7. Dear Sir,
    Simply i can say that the article is awesome and guiding.

    regards
    shakti

    shakti

    October 15, 2008 at 11:01 pm

  8. Dear Sir,

    Thanks. This surely has come as a “Guru Mantra” for all.

    PS: Where can i find the download link? :-/
    Sorry about now being able to find it.

    Regards,
    Girish
    Kalidas Just below chat box, there is a box called Downloan Center (center is partly seen). Scroll down and you will find excel file under same name as article. click it for download and save at your desired location.

    Girish

    October 15, 2008 at 11:21 pm

  9. Dear Kalidasji,
    Kudos for this post, continue on with your noble cause of educating investors.
    Regards.
    Amarawargaonkar

    amarawargaonkar

    October 16, 2008 at 1:23 am

  10. Where will the indian market bottom out.

    Sanjay Shah

    October 16, 2008 at 1:27 am

  11. Thank you very much dear Kalidasji…!!
    This article is the best one to guide millions of investers. Hats off to your experience, knowledge and wisdom.
    Dr.Tungala.

    tungala

    October 16, 2008 at 2:26 am

  12. Sir,

    I’m spellbound. Really dont have any words to ….

    Salute you.

    It is because of people like you that we still receive rainfall.

    May God bless your children. Thanks.

    Regards
    S. Muthu Raman

    Muthu Raman S

    October 16, 2008 at 2:29 am

  13. Dear Sir,

    Dow is down today by 733 points. So, I guess the indian market will be down also. Where do you see the bottom? Going by the negative sentiments, I fear that your prediction of sensex touching 6000 will be true.
    Sir, do you stand by your prediction?

    regards,
    v8r.
    Kalidas
    Be stock specific and never be a bottom fisher. What makes difference if the market goes to 6000 – you are not buying index but specific stock that will make money. It is more like asking whether a hospital is good or specific patient who is your relative? Right now, the market is in bad shape but some stocks will be really doing well.

    v8r

    October 16, 2008 at 4:31 am

  14. Dear Sir,

    I am listing my portfolio. Unfortunately, I am down by 20% app. 2,70,000. If you can give me your opinion, it will be great.

    Ambuja cement 325@109=35500 cur. 62 (-15K)
    GSPL 2750@53=145750 cur. 37.25 (-43k)
    India Cement 525@202=106000 cur. 97.8 (-55K)
    JP Hydro 1000@31.5=31500 cur 33 (+ 1.6K)
    NTPC 150@200=30000 cur 167.35 (- 5K)
    Prism cement 1000@41=41000 cur 20.55 (-20K)
    PTC India 1000@126=126000 cur 53.1 (-73K)
    Reliance Petro 3750@135=500000 cur 116.1 (-73K)
    RNRL 5000@48=240000 cur 55 (+35K)

    In the bracket I have written current profit or loss.

    I will be very thank ful if you can spare sometime.

    regards,
    v8r.
    Kalidas replies
    Normally, I do not give specific advice, because I would not know what the taker will do later on and what he does when thecircumstances change. However, I would do what is mentioned under each stock. Please note that it is impossible for me to advise individually, because there are 8000 stocks and I may be knowing at the most 300.

    Ambuja cement 325@109=35500 cur. 62 (-15K)
    Best company to own, will buy more at 61. However, the market is so bad, you can wait a few days more to pick it up at Rs 51 (20% more correction). However, I personally have decided to buy this scrip back (I had sold it at about 120 or thereabout earlier having bought at 92).

    GSPL 2750@53=145750 cur. 37.25 (-43k)
    Another gem to own. I bought it near 38 recently. Your losses are 30% whereas in others just 5% or profit in some counters. Sell them and swap them into this. this is still intermediate level to buy. I normally buy at 31 and 41. This is strongest stock with best prospects. It is still not that cheap enough though.

    India Cement 525@202=106000 cur. 97.8 (-55K)
    Average stock but heavy losses. Your losses 50% but still not buy back, as involvement of funds is more. By selling the stock at Rs 97.8, one cveragean buy Ambuja cement in same sector 50% more shares. Swap into Ambuja or GSPL

    JP Hydro 1000@31.5=31500 cur 33 (+ 1.6K)
    do not know much about this, except that it is a lousy group. you are in money or little loss – sell it, make profit or take a loss of 5% to 10% and reinvest into stocks having 30% or more losses.

    NTPC 150@200=30000 cur 167.35 (- 5K)
    Just sell and raise the cash and redploy elsewhere later

    Prism cement 1000@41=41000 cur 20.55 (-20K)
    A speculative stock, may come down heavily. May be you can buy more later. It is a speculative low value stocks good in bull market. will buy below 8

    PTC India 1000@126=126000 cur 53.1 (-73K)
    Why do you buy Power stocks like these? There is a unwritten saying that those who do not know the art of investing, buy utilities like this. In a country like India, where the theft of electricity is rampant, where the employees of the energy company teach you the trick of manipulating the meter using magnets, or where the villagers use ropes to steal the electricity from the main tower, how you could make money.

    You are blinded by the much hyped stories of Power and Infrastructures – all your stocks smell that. A company like PTC used to pay 10% interest on its borrowings overseas – I traded their bonds once. However, you may buy later – not now – to average down. Personally, I do not like this stock at all.

    Reliance Petro 3750@135=500000 cur 116.1 (-73K)
    Another hyped stock. The child in still in mother’s womb and the Astrologer predicting brilliant futures even before it is borne. Again, you are buying on hypes of Ambanis. Sell and buy GSPL. Your losses are perhaps 20% with less potential whereas GSPL or Petronet will give you better % returns with more shares in hand.

    RNRL 5000@48=240000 cur 55 (+35K)
    Another Ambani – this time Anil (my name). All mega plans with little to offer at the moment. I started buying in 23 to 28 all the way up to 53 and finally sold out from 92 to over 140. Everything on paper, plans without performance. However, it is in gas sector that attracts me. I recently bought ver few at about 71 and will buy more in severe correction. Success depends on court case; I would not speculate. The justice in India is for sale, so anything can happen

    v8r

    October 16, 2008 at 4:44 am

  15. Dear Kalidas sir, Can we have your opinion on following shares. 1. Sundram fasteners, 2. orchid chemicals, 3. ranbaxy, 4. idfc, 5. avon weighing, 6. indian bank, 7. oriental hotel, royal orchid hotel and hotel leela.
    Thanks and regards
    Ravi, Chennai

    Ravi

    October 16, 2008 at 10:49 am

  16. Sir,

    I’m holding 1000 Sesa Goa shares bought at Rs.168

    Dont have much money to average it the way you have mentioned in your “REBALANCING PORTFOLIO IN DEPRESSED MARKET” article.

    Please throw some light on this stocks prospects.Just want to minimise the losses as much as possible.

    Thanks and Regards
    S. Muthu Raman

    Muthu Raman S

    October 16, 2008 at 1:16 pm

  17. Dear Sir,

    Many thanks for your detailed reply.

    Best regards,
    v8r.

    v8r

    October 16, 2008 at 2:54 pm

  18. For the attention of all Respondents:

    I would appreciate if you will observe the following protocol to save the space and unnecessary cluttering:

    1. DO NOT thank me for my reply. It is implied.
    2. Please mention under your name the “Place, with country) to identify yourself. This will help us determine the geographic diversity. So when you write, Chennai, please mention it as Chennai, India.

    Thanks for your cooperation

    Kalidas, Hong Kong
    16-Oct-2008

    anilselarka

    October 16, 2008 at 3:31 pm

  19. Dear All,

    Due to browser problem im unable to download the excel file (To reorganize portfolio) published by kalidasji.

    Could anyone of you forward it to me on g.rateshwar@gmail.com

    I apologise for using this forum to place this request.

    Girish
    Pune (INDIA)

    Girish

    October 16, 2008 at 4:00 pm

  20. Sir, i think by giving one advice on individual portfolio you have opened a Pandora box.

    There is one more question which can certainly guide the youth of today.

    Should you invest in a home for staying in early in your career. Or should you invest same money in equity for 20 years(over a period of time) and stay in rented house for the period. And buy house at later stages of life.

    What i see that if I buy a house today, i will be in very tight position for any other investments, be it gold or equity. Major part of my saving will go in EMIs of the purchased house. I will lose the financial intelligence i would have gained if i had invested in equity and made decisions over a period of time which would have made me a better investor. I will also lose the compounding power of money which i have saved earlier in my career. Thats why i always feel one should not buy a house early in their career just to stay in it.

    Please Advice.
    Vivek Dhariwal, Gurgaon, India.

    Vivek

    October 16, 2008 at 4:43 pm

  21. Dear Girish,

    I have send you the excel file at your email id.

    Vivek, Gurgaon, India

    Vivek

    October 16, 2008 at 4:46 pm

  22. For All respondents:

    I have done some research on gold today:

    MMTC: 14990(including Tax, MMTC Mark) / 10 grams – do not buy back gold.

    Tanishq: 14648 (including Tax, Swiss Mark) / 10 grams – buy back at 5% less current price if you want cash back.

    HDFC Bank: 15765 (EXCLUDING TAX) / 10 grams – do not buy back.

    MMTC 1 KG Silver (in coins) : 23490
    Tanishq 1 KG Silver : 27000

    If anyone has better information from where to buy gold, please share.

    Vivek, Gurgaon, India

    Vivek

    October 16, 2008 at 4:52 pm

  23. For HDFC Gold rates: http://www.hdfcbank.com/common/gold_rates.htm

    For Tanishq store locator: http://www.tanishq.co.in/store_locator.html

    Information on MMTC Prices: 011-24365805

    Vivek, Gurgaon, India

    Vivek

    October 16, 2008 at 4:56 pm

  24. Dear Sir,

    I have DLF stocks for Rs.55000.
    I bought it 75@705, I plan to invest my money on this stock. Could you plese guide me?
    Shall I invest on this stock or not?

    By Azar., Hyderabad

    Kalidas replies
    When you enquire, please mention stock name, Quantity bought, cost price and current market price. Do not make me work for such routines. To answer your query, NO. If possible switch to others. This is much hyped stock from the day it came as IPO. I would not buy it even at Rs 50

    Azar

    October 16, 2008 at 5:06 pm

  25. Hi Sir,

    Almost six months back Gold is around USD900 and platinum is USD2400 to USD2000 there, platinum is precious metal than Gold, some time almost 3times, Why now its almost equal to gold(Today Gold USD832 and Platinum is USD910), is platinum just crasy metal, US and developed countries just used as arnments(just for change) or is there any other reasons like as you told central bank hold Gold when currency fails. i means, is platinum rate will go or down based on demand and supply.

    Thanks
    GS, HongKong

    Kalidas Replies
    Gold as investment is not comparable to any other metal including Platinum. Platinum is an industrial metal used in Automobiles as catalyst for carburetter. Palladium is poor substitute. The real precious metal is Gold and Silver which are univerally exchangeable and saleable at thousand of gold shops. Gold is a currency, platinum is not. Not many people would have seen Platinum (known as White metal). No central bank keep reserve in Platinum or Palladium. They do keep Gold and Silver. India buys 800 MT of Gold per year which is mostly used for Jewellery. The share of platinum is very very small. A metal which is used by many and easily exchangable in any country at any time is called Precious Metal – others are craps

    gs_2007

    October 16, 2008 at 5:56 pm

  26. for Vivek,

    Indian has changed a lot since my days of youth. The demands of girls and their parents have risen a lot. Earlier, there was a saying in Gujarati that ” Ghar ma thi var thai” that is, a husband makes a home sooner or later, not other way round.

    Nowadays, the girls’ parents ask – how much you earn and whether the boy has independent home or house. Some even make demand that the boy after marriage should spin off from his family and leave separately with their daughter.

    Now, your question whether one should have home in early stage of life. Normally, a person should start looking after home when his income has risen enough and generally in mid 30s. However, the income level has dramatically increased over the years.

    I have one principle. Never overextend yourself and contract debt just to buy a home to show to others that you are a wealthy man. The efforts of the youth should be directed to increase their income by 30% every year by jumping jobs every 2 or 3 years from the age of 25 to 35. If you contract debt too much now, it will be difficult to change the job and restrict your own career prospects.

    If you are able to increase your income 3 times in less than 10 years, or 33% growth per year, whether in service, profession or small business, then there is no need to look for any other equity or gold investments. Then you can buy your home, even if it is slightly more expensive because you can afford it.

    Before you buy the home, do not dabble into stock market. Whatever amount reserved for home should be used only for that purpose. Except in circumstances, where the stocks are down by 70% to 80% and they are screaming bargains. Those days are coming soon.

    Currently, the property prices are high, credit is very high with tendency of Interest rates to go higher, economy is receding, so the best thing to do now is to wait. Unless you come across a good bargain or good apartment or home at bargain value. My rule of bargain price is simple – if you know the rental of the apartment or home, multiply by 180, that will be fair price. 140 or below will be good price and 120 is the bargain.

    Example: If rental is 8000, the normal price comes to Rs 14.5 lakhs (180x 8000) and so on. Many do not agree to this formula, but it works fine everywhere in the world including India.

    anilselarka

    October 16, 2008 at 5:59 pm

  27. CAN YOU ADVISE , INVESTING IN RELIANCE CAPITAL AT CURRENT MARKET PRICE i.e BELOW 700

    Kalidas
    No. It may collapse big time. I would not give reasons

    RAJ PATEL

    October 16, 2008 at 6:45 pm

  28. Kalidasji,
    I recently brought some Gold . Was surprised to find that the rates at ICICI Bank & HDFC Bank for 10 Gms coin were almost 10% higher than the coins available with my local jeweller . The same higher rates were also quoted at Tata’s Tanisq Showrooms.
    Comparision –
    ICICI/HDFC Bank 24Karat 10 gms coins – INR 15100 appx.
    Local reliable Jeweller – INR 13800 appx.
    The Gold rates on the day was 13400 , and the jeweller charges Rs.400 as making charges.The coin are returnable at the pravalent Gold rates on any given day.

    At Tanisq the rates are higher because the Gold price for the day which they prominenetly display in their showrooms is higher by 5-6% and on top of that they charge 5% making charges.

    Kalidas replies
    for Deekay

    I have already covered this topic on Money control and informed all to be careful. HDFC (and perhaps other banks) use 28.5 gms = 1 oz whereas it is 31.1 = 1 Oz in the market (exact may be difference due to more decimals). Further, they do not buy back but just sell. So you instantly lose 10%

    I do not know about others. We normally buy from Bank of China in Hong Kong at international rates. we end up paying service charge of just 1% or 2% Max with 100% guarantee and Bank of china mark with 0.9999 purity

    Deekay

    October 16, 2008 at 6:49 pm

  29. Kalidas sir,

    In one of your article you mentioned about shift rally in the market where only bidder would be there.. when do you expect trend reversal in Indian stock marketand what could be the expected time for that rally to come?? As per your articles future market does looks good!! Pl suggest something for small investors like me!!

    thanks & regards, hani a
    Kalidas replies
    That scenario is still far away. This is extremely fast changing situation. You have to be alert like a pilot. You have to continuously look for the signs that the US government is taking actions in right direction. Right now they are groping in the dark.

    Request: Please mention City and country when you post next time.

    hani.amit

    October 16, 2008 at 7:34 pm

  30. Sir,

    Regarding Real Estate in India and your advice on the same, should we not be careful about an ‘Indian Subprime’ scenario unfolding?

    Considering that a lot of young professionals have purchased their first house almost immediately after graduating and taking up a job, leading to almost all of the cost being paid through finance from banks (maybe including ‘Furniture Loans’, etc the total finance required is 120-150% of base cost).
    Now the basic assumption of everybody taking such finance is that their incomes will rise up with time and thus the EMI’s that they are currently paying (which may me almost 75-80% of their monthly salary) will not be such a big pinch on the wallet after a few years of incremental income.
    But in a ‘Global Slowdown’, incremental income levels are just not going to happen, so risk of defaults increase.
    Further, as the Real Estate market will also headed downwards in a Slowdown, Value of the property for new buyers will be much lesser than the price which was paid by the original buyers (for which he/she is repaying loan with interest)….
    A lot of Indians will walk to their loaning banks with the keys to their house for starting Foreclosure proceedings themselves, in such a scenario.

    Maybe the only saving grace, if such a scenario unfolds, is that such loans are not being packaged, leveraged and sold to other financial entities by the Indian Banks. But it will surely lead to a run on the Banking sector….

    Kalidas Replies
    There is no foreclosure procedure in India. Most of the borrowers have to pay 25% margin. There is therefore no possibility of sub prime debacle in India. Further, there is no leveraging or repackaging of loans or derivatives to my knowledge. The banks in India do not have automatic right of seizure of the property, and the courts are usually lenient to allow time to the borowers. Further, there is no walking away from the mortgage unlike in USA because the mortgage loans are with recourse. If the sold property does not fetch enough amount to adjust the loan, the borrower is personally liable and his salary is subject to attachment. Further, the borrower should enjoy banks going to the courts for order. The courts usually allow only 6% interest on the loans outstanding regardless of mortgage interest payment of 12% to 15% (this is going on for over 100 years in India). So take the loan, make a default and let the bank go to the court, so that the borrower has to pay less interest for the rest of his life. (Please note that in some cases the court has awarded higher interest amount, but in case of employees, the court considers the family income etc before passing order. 6% is the norm)

    Ashish Dandekar

    October 16, 2008 at 11:30 pm

  31. Dear Kalidas ji,

    Can you please share your views on near future of Gold based on present circumstances. Gold is witnessing selling pressure from Hedge funds who have to close their long positions in Gold. On the other hand investors who are rich in Cash are rushing to Gold as a safe investment.
    I am based in NY and I have cash reserve in both India and US. Can you please guide whether it will be good to buy Gold in India or USA? (Not sure how the USD Vs Rs game will pay out and how it will affect Gold prices in India). And what is the good price range to start buying Gold.

    Warm Regards,
    Alex
    Kalidas Replies
    Gold is coming down due to lower oil and stronger dollar. Under current situation, it is better to put away at least 15% of your investment into Gold whenever there is major rally in wall street such as yesterday. I would not know who is selling Gold (mainly traders) but not Hedge funds who were always short of gold in the past. the current crisis is leading us to new monetary standard where gold will play important role.

    Further, Central Banks in Europe have realized the importance of gold, so are refraining from it. There is a strong possibility that Gold may jump by $100 to 300 in a day (and go to even $2400 level) when it is realized that US government does not own as much gold as it shown to hold (over 8100 NT). This fact is concealed very cleverly and so far has not attracted attention.Oil prices too will jump very high near November expiration due to short recovery.In mid of November, OPEC may announce major cut back in oil production. (may be 2 Million bpd). Gold will make major move near December end which has important contract expiry.

    It Should be noted that we are in the middle of wild ride, stocks and oils jumping up or down in hundreds of points day in and out. The gold also follows the suit. However, this is the best indicator of market instability of very highest order which boosts the appeal of the gold. If any major banks fail, the gold will shoot up. The days of dollar as safe haven are gone for the time being. Since all actions taken by US administration are in wrong direction and do not address basic issues, I have strong feeling that once the DOW falls below 8000, it will rapidly go to 5000 level, that may cause Gold to spurt.

    Since there are many redemption call, the rupee will weaken a lot. (When the funds sell equity or bonds, they have to sell rupee and buy dollars to repatriate the money overseas. Gold will be good hedge against Rupee in short term. I would rather buy gold in USA from American Precious Metal exchange (APMEX) web site is http://www.apmex.com/. They deliver only within United States at international prices. I have bought from them physical Silver and palladium on a few occasions.

    With regard to entry level of Gold price, I can only say that the present level is a good level after almost $100 correction. See whether Dow is having follow up rally tomorrow; if it does not then buy the gold. Honestly, I do not care what price I buy the gold 790 o 735 or 850, so long as my upside target is very high as mentioned above. What makes the difference in $10 to 50 when the upside could be so high. However, do not put too much money into gold for the simple reason that people love equities. In India FII money will not come back because their own market has become so cheap that they have no incentive to go overseas.

    Alex

    October 17, 2008 at 1:27 am

  32. Sir,

    I’m holding 1000 Sesa Goa shares bought at Rs.168.
    CMP – 82

    Please advise on the prospects of Sesa Goa.

    Regards
    S. Muthu Raman, Chennai, India

    Muthu Raman S

    October 17, 2008 at 1:28 am

  33. Dear Sir,

    What are the attributes have to probe to buy the good stocks?

    Thanks

    Warm Regards,
    M.Rajmohan babu
    Ponite-Noire, Congo

    Rajmohan babu

    October 17, 2008 at 1:58 am

  34. Dear Sir,

    I have started using your excel table for rationalizing my Father’s portfolio. I think you can also include 2 more columns into your excel sheet 1) Category of Stock so that sorting becomes easier on groups (Like Oil, Power etc), 2) On % Losses/Gains so that decision making becomes easier on % basis.

    I have few queries: I will try to keep my queries as general as possible considering many of Broaders will have similar type of issues when they start rationalizing their portfolio based on the excel you send. (If they are into trading and many stocks in portfolio)

    1) Which stock is the best Dividend yielding stock to hold in these times.

    2) He is holding various catagories of petroleum, refinary, oil marketing stocks like AndhraPetrochemicals, BongoigoanRefinery, HPCL, IOC, ManaliPetro, MRPL, RPL and Supreme Petro – with total losses of over 44% on aggregated basis. Is it prudent to sell all these and buy only GSPL.

    3) Best stock to swap in Shipping sector, i believe is Essar Shipping. (Swap from Varun Shipping, currently both are at same levels)

    4) Best PSU bank in your view for swaping. He is holding Bk of Maharasthra, Bk of Rajasthan, Central Bank, Dena bank, Indian Bank, IOB, Uco Bank and Union Bank. On Aggregate basis his loss is 28%. With no profit no loss in Uco bank and some profit in Union Bank and Indian Bank.

    On other sectors i will have queries, but i have to research them more before i ask you anything.

    Regards,
    Vivek, Gurgaon, India

    Vivek

    October 17, 2008 at 4:13 am

  35. sir, your comments i saw in coupls of your postings:
    1.Gold at Rs 13000 now, and within 2 years it could be anywhere over Rs 25000 or more due to present crisis and weakening of rupee.

    2. Right now, the market is in downtrend with no end in sight. Dow is destined to go to 5000 level soon. Will you advice me to sell stocks and buy gold for a 2 to 5 year investment?

    Kalidas Writes

    I will deal with all Gold related issues in another article.

    One should not put more than 15% or 20% of his money into Gold howsoever attractive its potential is. Gold would have come down to Rs 8000 in India if Government of India had allowed rupee to appreciate to Rs 26 to which it was destined to. If Rupee is allowed to depreciate against dollar, gold will be good investment in India. We do not know the attitude of fickle minded officials and ministers in RBI, SEBI and Finance Ministry. The value of gold in India depends on the value of rupee as well vs dollar. Further, one should buy only non-jewellery gold, that is, gold bar or lagdi, otherwise your family members would never let you sell it even if you make money. Short term for 12 months horizon, the gold is a good investment compared to equity or other currencies. Do not buy paper gold or derivatives. You know almost all brokers are in trouble. Your gold could disappear with them.

    When the rupee was at 39 level, both Finance Minister, RBI Chief Reddy and SEBI chief Damodaran brought in all P-Note related regulations and intervention just to arrest inflow of dollars into rupee. They were calling such inflow of dollar as speculative money. When the dollar is going out, same people are complaining why the dollar going out. They follow ON and OFF policy at all times. I can not read foolish mind.

    Raghu

    October 17, 2008 at 11:26 am

  36. respected sir
    i regularly read your columns and salute the contents in it.i am a value investor and prefer buying stocks of reputed companies below book values even though they are on low earnings presuming that a good management will always turn the company in an upward business cycle.On this account is raymond @99(book value 218)and mtnl@60(book value 178 and cash value 70)a good buy?

    Kalidas Replies
    Book value is not necessarily a good concept. it has significance only in the event of company going bankrupt. However, by the time that stage has reached, the management usually disposes off all valuable assets leaving only shell for the shareholders or creditors. Cash value is more important, because it is the most liquid disposable assets. Again, there is a risk of fraud or otherwise. Recently, Lehman brothers transferred $9 Billions of cash from London to USA only minutes before declaring bankruptcy.

    Earning power alone drive up or down the prices. Further, private enterprises do better than the state owned companies because private owners engage brokers to promote their shares by active market making, that Government organizations rarely do.

    Coming to specifics:
    Raymond used to be a good industrial company with good assets and earning power. A good stock to own. However, of late I have not followed this stock. If there are no negatives about the company, go for it.

    MTNL is a gem. One fine morning it will declare cash dividend of 50% of present value. It has received thousands of crores of tax rebate that works out to over Rs 60 per share ( I do not know the exact number – this is subject to recheck). In today’s market Cash is king and MTNL fits into that tag.

    You have identified the two good stocks; go on buying them in stages in this highly unstable market as mentioned in the article – two on way down and 1 or 3 on way up. Raymond may make early and more gains than MTNL, but on long term, MTNL is best for all angles. And finally, change your name from Pessimistic9

    pessimistic9

    October 17, 2008 at 5:03 pm

  37. Dear sir
    I am follower of your article couple of month which are highly expresssed in Macro factor .
    As crude is falling sharply refinary companies like reliance & Ongc will be in HUge loss…whats are your expert comment on these stocks which haveing more than 25% mkt weightage.
    Finally , when do u expect Indian stock market New high ? (time frame)

    Regards, Dave, Jabalpur , INDIA

    Kalidas replies
    Refineries stocks behave inversely to oil prices. They benefit because their input costs go down, and lower cost input is not immediately transferred to consumers. Producers like ONGC lose somewhat, but they too have refineries like MRPL and Bongaigaon. Compared to pure oil producers, ONGC is better placed. Rupee depreciation also works in favor of ONGC. In any case, lower oil prices will not be passed on to consumers as Government may adjust the benefits against past subsidies.

    Currently, RIL and SBI might affect index more, so also ICICI (I do not know its weighting). INFY and other high techs are near bottom and they benefit from Rupee depreciation. Even if they lose out 10% in contract value, they gain in Rupees by 15%. Nevertheless, the loss of index will be widespread with hotels, IT, ONGC, RIL rebounding soon that will be slowing the pace of decline. SBI will be the biggest loser – may go down by 40% from current level.

    Dave

    October 17, 2008 at 9:50 pm

  38. Dear Kalidas Sir,

    You have mentioned in the comments that “Do not buy paper gold or derivatives. You know almost all brokers are in trouble. Your gold could disappear with them.”

    Are you referring to Gold ETF as Paper Gold or any other product. Because, in respect of Gold ETF, PHYSICAL GOLD is the underlying kept with the Custodian and also insured for protection. It is TRADED in the Stock Exchange, and the price is tracked to the Gold Price in the market.

    Hence, by investing in Gold ETF, we get the advantage of owning physical gold, without incurring additional expenses and losses like making charges (for gold jewellery), and bank vault charges (for keeping coins or bars or jewellery). However, in a situation like war or natural calamities, physical gold on hand is superior to any other option.

    In addition to that, we also get tax exemptions as the income from redemption of Gold ETF is treated as Long Term Capital Gain.

    In view of the above, I am holding 1/3rd of my gold investment, in Gold ETF. Is it right or am I missing out any key issues.

    Your views shall enlighten us on Gold Investment.

    Muthu, Chennai, 17-Oct-2008

    Kalidas Replies
    Gold ETF in India is okay if it is Demat qualified and you get credit to your Demat account. Demat accounts belong to NSDL which is Government of India promoted institution. Please note that I am not writing from Indian point of view – we in Hong Kong can also buy paper gold and silver.

    Muthu

    October 17, 2008 at 10:49 pm

  39. Sir,
    You might have read a post on bloomberg of Warren Buffet saying “If prices Stay attractive, his personal investments,as distinct from his stake in Berkshire Hathaway Inc., will soon be wholly in American equities.”

    What a Imotional & Speculative Decision By Oracle of omaha at AGE of 78!!!!
    Eventhough I dont take that much risk to invest my entire saving in Stock market at my age of 24 and I will not need this money till next 5-6 years…

    I think Buffet is playing the Game of DO or DIE…

    BTW Time will Deside Loser or Winner in this Speculative game!!!!!!!
    I Dont Know…..
    Jayesh Ghatkopar Mumbai

    Kalidas Replies

    Agreed. He has assumed the role of soothsayer. US Administration has hired him for PR Job since most people listen to him. There was a time when Buffet never told anyone what he bought and sold until it was known much later at the time of statutory filing. If I remember he and Soros objected to the rule of disclosure that affected their investment. Now, he reaches the podium and announces to the world, what he bought and what others should be doing. A smart investor never informs anyone what he bought and sold and let the market figure it out in sheer speculation. At 78, Mr. Buffet has lost that fundamental discipline.

    Further, Mr. Buffet has not offered even a single solution or suggestion to US Administration to resolve the present impasse. Even his experience is lacking this imagination or creative concept. Then, why the people are listening to him that it was time to buy when he does not know what is wrong and how long will it last?

    Jayesh

    October 17, 2008 at 11:04 pm

  40. ” I enclose the Hypothetical Portfolio and how is it restructured (go to the side bar – Download Center, scroll down to excel file – Rebalancing portfolio – 08-008 and download this file). ”
    Sir I am using firefox browser and im unable to find any download link m, please tell me where can i find .im seacrching it from past 2 days and unable to find it

    Kalidas Replies (October 18, 2008)
    The files are already there. I also use FireFox 3.0 (for Windows) and also 2.0 (for Mac). In between the lines “Download Ce…MENU” and “powered by Box” there is a box with scroll bar. It may look faint.. The files are in that box marked with PDF symbols. If you can not see them, please pull down MENU and select List view. You will now see the files. Scroll up or down and select the title you need. They are all in PDF format perfectly formated. You may take a color/BW print out and retain for your later use

    I have already forwarded the files to your email address provided. They are Adobe file + Excel Files.

    Manjunath

    October 18, 2008 at 3:00 am

  41. Dear Manjunath,
    Check for

    Download Ce.. MENU

    Powered by box
    in a box that look like an Ad on right side of this page. For your info.. I too use firefox.
    Dr.Tungala
    St. Ann’s Bay,Jamaica,WI.

    tungala

    October 18, 2008 at 11:40 am

  42. Dear Kalidas sir,

    When do you see our market again making new high!! Mother bull run for Indian STock market!!

    like MTNL can u suggest few good stocks for investment with 2 -3 years horizon!!

    REgards

    hani a
    Ahmedabad, India

    hani.amit

    October 18, 2008 at 1:56 pm

  43. Sir ,
    Other day you mentioned that except Brazil, France, India almost all countries have Banking problems. I am curious to know how come France is left out of this financial catastrophe, being part of European community. What they did different than other EU countries ?

    Shiva
    Bangalore India

    Shiva

    October 18, 2008 at 9:23 pm

  44. Kalidas Sirji,
    Your nickname of Kalidas is very apt, your financial acumen when put on paper is just like elegant poetry. Could you please also suggest a list of must read financial books that need to be read by individual investors to improve our investing knowledge.

    For example.
    Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham
    Financial statement analysis by Bernstien

    Thanks a lot and with best regards
    Deepak, Bengalooru, India
    Kalidas writes
    Honestly, I did not read any book due to two reasons. first, I was a banker and a credit officer for a long time in a bank, I did Cost Accountancy as well. (only one group was left out). I was science graduate as well as Law Graduate as well. Science gave me a power of logic, Law a knowledge to view any transaction from legal angle too, cost accountancy gave me knowledge of Accounts and banking diploma gave me good knowledge of bonking and finance. I also did a bit about journalism, though never completed it.

    My best assets were observation and ability to interrelate the events. To look at every thing rationally without any bias. Lack of reading of books kept me away from dogma, so my thoughts were original. My best education was bloomberg. When I joined the stockbrokerage, Bloomberg made my life. There was nothing that I could not get from Bloomberg. Not everyone has that advantage of accessing Bloomberg. Internet version of Bloomberg was inadequate. I would say that my abilities got the major boost from Bloomberg.

    However, you may read the books just mentioned. Read and relate them to the current happenings – and you will know what to read and how to read, interpret and anticipate events. If something does not happen the way intended, investigate. There are two things stand out. Either you are wrong or the standard itself is wrong. Currently what is happening is that the entire benchmark or the standard has gone wrong, so all theories related to that standard are falling apart. This is what I have done, and suggest you to follow the same course.

    deepaks_univ

    October 19, 2008 at 12:38 am

  45. Dear Kalidasji,

    I have been following your MMB and now blog-immensely happy to read them for getting some knowledge.

    Pl.can you let us know in the present market status which Sector/Industry should be benefiting the investors short term/long term or any particular stocks[have noted from the blog- GSPL(bought 800@36), Ambuja cement(bought 300@59), Raymond and MTNL]?

    Great job with great effort by you. I bow.

    Rang-Jama, Bangalore, India.

    p.s. Forced myself not to write in praise and to thank you for your work, as u don’t want them to be elaborated and insist that one should be to the point.

    Rang-Jama

    October 19, 2008 at 1:50 pm

  46. Kalidas sir,
    One day you had mentioned that Almost 50% of Hedge funds would be bankrupt In October’2008 because of Changing the rules in middle of Game .As far my knowledge there are 6000 hedge funds in U.S. (Source:MorningStar.Com) If these 3000 hedge funds will be bankrupt then DOW will surely break important 8000 level and It will go down Heavily. Now I just want to know that from When these Hedge funds will declare Bankruptys ?.
    Thanks & Regards
    Jayesh Ghatkopar Mumbai

    jayesh

    October 19, 2008 at 3:58 pm

  47. Dear friends, I am in the same boat like many others. I am not able to find the download link to download the excel sheet provided by Mr. Kalidas Sir. Can anybody send me in my id (santosh.sarangi1@gmail.com).
    Thanks in advance,
    -Santosh, Bangalore,India

    santosh

    October 19, 2008 at 8:11 pm

  48. Sri Kalidas sir, The way things are going is it possible that we can see another 25 to 40 % drop in share prices of most companies. What is the strategy we need to adopt. should it be trading strategy or we can start investment strategy with one year horizon. Your views are anxiously awaited.
    Thanks and regards
    Ravi, Chennai, India

    Ravi

    October 19, 2008 at 11:52 pm

  49. Hi Kalidasji,

    really a grt post to save the hard earned money of our peers.realy the excel file is grt and things u advised are awesome…thnx thnx thnx a lot.this blog is more than a cup of tea for us in the morning, afternoon and evening..we can miss a cup of tea but not this…we are so addicted and so fond of ur financial knowledge..we learnd a lot..

    Rgrds, Ojal, Udaipur, INDIA

    Ojal Suthar

    October 23, 2008 at 1:17 am

  50. Dear Sir,

    I am having Portfolio in Excel File and here i can not upload here…
    Unfortunately, I am down by 55 %. If you can give me your email id and opinion, it will be great.

    Please Sir because its not possible to post each stock here no link to upload a file…Thank You very…. MUCH. Happy Diwali in Advance…

    Kalidas Replies It is not possible to advise every individual investor on his portfolio. I may not be following his stocks. You better follow the guidelines given and give it a try on paper, if not in real life, and see how it works. As a special case, I have answered your email – check your email box today after a few hours. Also agreed that you are unable to upload the file as question. The present format of WordPress does not allow that.

    Manoj Borse

    October 27, 2008 at 3:32 am

  51. Hi Kalidas Sir,

    I have started buying, I bought Abhishek industries 500@8, Deccan Aviation 600@40.23, GSPL 200@35, IFCI 2000@20.97 RNRL 700@49.14, Spice jet 3600%13.25, Magnum Venture 2000@7.85.

    Currently I have one lack with me, I may can add 1 more lack with in 1 1/2 weeks time, can you please give me the suggest on my current portfolio, do I need to swift any of my stocks, or do I need to average down any of these stocks. Please comment on my airlines stocks sir, I had almost 40% of money in this sector. As you mentioned in recent comments, I also planning to add three more scripts that are DISH TV, Hotel Leela , MTNL.

    Please comment on this sir. same question also I have asked in MMB sir.

    Thanks & Regards
    GS, Hongkong

    Kalidas Replies to GS Stocks(ref: 0810-032 -Monday, October 27, 2008)
    If I were you, I would do the following:
    SELL Deccan (600 shrs) and switch to IFCI (1200 shrs) with same money
    BUY Abhishek Ind (2500 shrs) more at this price
    BUY GSPL (700 shrs) when the time and your resources permit
    Buy some hotel stocks like Hotel Leela, Taj GVK
    BUY Dish TV now 2000 shrs at current prices

    Again it depends on risk taking abilities of individual. It is time to take out money from PF or Bank deposit account and go on applying them slowly and surely in really good scrips.

    ALSO, before posting, ensure that you are typing on your word processor like Word and have them spell checked before transfering to this column. It does not give us good reading if there are many spelling errors. I have already corrected your errors.

    gs_2007

    October 27, 2008 at 1:41 pm


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